MODELLING OF INFLATIONARY PROCESSES IN UZBEKISTAN ON THE BASIS OF THE NEW KEYNESIAN PHILIPS CURVE

MODELLING OF INFLATIONARY PROCESSES IN UZBEKISTAN ON THE BASIS OF THE NEW KEYNESIAN PHILIPS CURVE

Sardor Sadykov

Abstract

The paper presents the results of an empirical evaluation of various types of new Keynesian Phillips curves for modeling inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan in particular, was rated "standard" form of the new Keynesian Phillips curve, its modification for a small open economy, as well as a hybrid form of this curve, which, along with the rational (being proactive (forward-looking)) inflation expectations also considers adaptive (nasal spray (backward-looking)) inflation expectations.
According to the results of the evaluation of the new Keynesian curves of Phillips, the degree of influence of forward-looking inflation expectations and the deviation of the average marginal cost of production from the equilibrium level on inflation in Uzbekistan were determined, additional macroeconomic factors of inflation were identified, and the degree of relevance of the inflation expectations in relation to inflation and its comparison with the degree of influence on inflation of forward-looking inflation expectations was calculated.
The results of the study can be used to improve the efficiency of the development and implementation of monetary policy in Uzbekistan within the framework of the inflation targeting regime. Also, this study can serve as a basis for further modeling of economic processes in the framework of the approach of the new Keynesian theory in Kazakhstan and in other countries with economies in transition.

Key words

Inflation targeting; new Keynesian Phillips curve; inflation; inflation factors; adaptive expectations; rational expectations; Uzbekistan; generalized method of moments; instrumental variables.

JEL Codes: C36, D84, E31, E52

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Statistics:
The Central Bank Of Uzbekistan, http://cbu.uz/uzc/
Bureau of statistics of Uzbekistan
https://stat.uz/ru/433-analiticheskie-materialy-ru/2041-analiz-makroekonomicheskikh-pokazatelej-respubliki-uzbekistan-za-gody-nezavisimosti-1991-2017gg
Ministry of foreign trade of Uzbekistan, https://mft.uz/ru/menu/eksportyor-uchun

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