HOW BUSINESS CLIMATE AFFECTS THE ECONOMIC CYCLES OF FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE OF HOUSEHOLDS IN EU

DIMITAR STEFANOV RADILOV
GEORGI MALINOV CHERVENSKI

 

Abstract

The paper proposes a methodology for testing the degree of synchronization between the business climate and economic cycles in the final consumption expenditure of households for six countries in Central and Eastern Europe. It is measured by crosscorrelation coefficients taking into account different time lags. The results show that the following indicator financial situation over the next 12 months is procycle. The indicator for unemployment expectations over the next 12 months is countercycle.

 

Key words

economic cycles, business climate, final consumption expenditure of households, cross-correlation, synchronization

 

References

Burns, A.F and Mitchel. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles. NBER Studies in Business Cycles, No 2. New York: Columbia University Press.
Sherman, H. J. (1991). The Business Cycle: Growth and Crisis Under Capitalism. Princeton University Press.
Upton, Gr. and Cook, I. (2011). Oxford Dictionary of Statistics. Oxford University Press.
Zarnowitz, V. (1991). What is a business cycle?. NBER, Annual Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Радилов, Д. (2013). Икономическа статистика. Варна: Изд. Наука и икономика.

 

Full Text: PDF (Bulgarian)