LONG-RUN FORECASTING OF ECOTOURISM RECEIPTS FOR THE NEEDS OF THE BULGARIAN MUNICIPALITIES

PRESLAV DIMITROV

 

Abstract

Most of the Bulgarian rural and mountainous municipalities need to back up their investment decision in tourism infrastructure by preliminary analysis and forecasts. The present paper regards a specific set of some major problems in the application of exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting of the ecotourism receipts (ecotourism revenues) for the needs of the mountainous municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria, located near to the border with Greece and Turkey. This specific set of problems comprises: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; or the so-called “forecast profile”;(ii)the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) calculating of short-run and long-run forecasts; and (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. A specially designed model for estimation of the weight coefficient needed for determining the size of the rural tourism and ecotourism sectors of this very same municipality is being presented.

 

Key words

Long-run forecasting, exponential smoothing, ecotourism, ecotourism receipts

 

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